Poverty impacts of a WTO agreement : synthesis and overview

This paper reports on the findings from a major international research project investigating the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda (DDA). It combines in a novel way the results from several strands of research. Intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement pays particularly close attention to potential reforms in agriculture. The scenarios are built up using newly available tariff line data and their implications for world markets are established using a global modeling framework. These world trade impacts, in turn, form the basis for 12 country case studies of the national poverty impacts of these DDA scenarios. The focus countries include Bangladesh, Brazil (two studies), Cameroon, China (two studies), Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, Russia, and Zambia. The diversity of approaches taken in these studies allows the paper to reflect local conditions and priorities and illustrates many important facets of the trade and poverty link. It does, however, limit the ability to draw broader conclusions. Thus an additional study provides a 15-country cross-section analysis, and a global analysis provides estimates for the world as a whole.Rural Poverty Reduction,Poverty Assessment,Free Trade,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth

Distributional effects of WTO agricultural reforms in rich and poor countries

Rich countries'agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the WTO's troubled Doha Round will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless appear to be almost immune to serious reform, and one of their most common defenses is that they protect poor farmers. The authors'findings reject this claim. The analysis uses detailed data on farm incomes to show that major commodity programs are highly regressive in the United States, and that theonly serious losses under trade reform are among large, wealthy farmers in a few heavily protected subsectors. In contrast, analysis using household data from 15 developing countries indicates that reforming rich countries'agricultural trade policies would lift large numbers of developing country farm households out of poverty. In the majority of cases these gains are not outweighed by the poverty-increasing effects of higher food prices among other households. Agricultural reforms that appear feasible, even under an ambitious Doha Round, achieve only a fraction of the benefits for developing countries that full liberalization promises, but protect U.S. large farms from most of the rigors of adjustment. Finally, the analysis indicates that maximal trade-led poverty reductions occur when developing countries participate more fully in agricultural trade liberalization.Rural Poverty Reduction,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Achieving Shared Growth

Poverty analysis using an international cross-country demand system

This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand system using a combination of micro-data from household surveys and macro-data from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). Estimation is undertaken in a manner that reconciles these two sources of information, explicitly recognizing that per capita national demands are an aggregation of the disaggregated, individual household demands. The second innovation relates to a methodology for post-estimation calibration of the global demand system, giving rise to country-specific demand systems and an associated expenditure function which, when aggregated across the expenditure distribution, reproduce observed per capita budget shares exactly. This leads to the third innovation, which is the establishment of a unique poverty level of utility and an appropriately modified set of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures. With these tools in hand, the authors are able to calculate the change in the head-count of poverty, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap arising from policy reforms, where the poverty measures are derived using a unique poverty level of utility, rather than an income or expenditure-based measure. They use these techniques with a demand system for food, other nondurables and services estimated using a combination of 1996 ICP data set and national expenditure distribution data. Calibration is demonstrated for three countries for which household survey expenditure data are used during estimation-Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. To show the usefulness of these calibrated models for policy analysis, the authors assess the effects of an assumed 5 percent food price rise as might be realized in the wake of a multilateral trade agreement. Results illustrate the important role of subsistence expenditures at lowest income levels, but of discretionary expenditure at higher income levels. The welfare analysis underscores the relatively large impact of the price hike on poorer households, while a modified Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measure shows that the 5 percent price rise increases the incidence and intensity of poverty in all three cases, although the specific effects vary considerably by country.Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction,Poverty Lines

Modeling Uncertainty in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems

The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. This study introduces a novel numerical method to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic natural resource allocation problems that cannot be addressed by conventional methods. The method is illustrated with an application focusing on the allocation of global land resource use under stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model as compared to deterministic scenario analysis. The scenario analysis can thus significantly overstate the magnitude of expected land conversion under uncertain crop yields

Tree Fall Data, post- Super Storm Sandy, 2012-2014

Since Superstorm Sandy in October 2012, Kendra McMillin and Gerry Hertel monitored tree fall in the Gordon Natural Area. After Sandy there was a wind event in August, 2013 and then the ice storm in February 2014 which caused further tree fall

The Suppressive Power of Positive Thinking: Aiding Suppression-Induced Forgetting in Repressive Coping

Participants scoring high and low on a measure of repressive coping style (Mendolia, 2002) first learned a series of related word pairs (cue-target). Half of the cues were homographs. In the subsequent think/no-think phase (Anderson & Green, 2001), they responded with targets on some trials and suppressed thoughts of targets on others. Suppressed targets were always emotionally negative, as were targets associated with baseline cues reserved for the final test. Some participants were provided with emotionally benign or positive substitutes to help them suppress, and these substitutes were related to different meanings of the homographic cues, compared to those established by the targets. On the final test, all cues were presented for target recall. Only the repressors significantly benefited from the provision of positive substitutes to aid forgetting of the negative targets, regardless of the nature of the cues

Collisionless energy absorption in the short-pulse intense laser-cluster interaction

In a previous Letter [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 123401 (2006)] we have shown by means of three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations and a simple rigid-sphere model that nonlinear resonance absorption is the dominant collisionless absorption mechanism in the intense, short-pulse laser cluster interaction. In this paper we present a more detailed account of the matter. In particular we show that the absorption efficiency is almost independent of the laser polarization. In the rigid-sphere model, the absorbed energy increases by many orders of magnitude at a certain threshold laser intensity. The particle-in-cell results display maximum fractional absorption around the same intensity. We calculate the threshold intensity and show that it is underestimated by the common over-barrier ionization estimate.Comment: 12 pages, 13 figures, RevTeX

Associations of region-specific foot pain and foot biomechanics: the framingham foot study

BACKGROUND. Specific regions of the foot are responsible for the gait tasks of weight acceptance, single-limb support, and forward propulsion. With region foot pain, gait abnormalities may arise and affect the plantar pressure and force pattern utilized. Therefore, this study’s purpose was to evaluate plantar pressure and force pattern differences between adults with and without region-specific foot pain. METHODS. Plantar pressure and force data were collected on Framingham Foot Study members while walking barefoot at a self-selected pace. Foot pain was evaluated by self-report and grouped by foot region (toe, forefoot, midfoot, or rearfoot) or regions (two or three or more regions) of pain. Unadjusted and adjusted linear regression with generalized estimating equations was used to determine associations between feet with and without foot pain. RESULTS. Individuals with distal foot (forefoot or toes) pain had similar maximum vertical forces under the pain region, while those with proximal foot (rearfoot or midfoot) pain had different maximum vertical forces compared to those without regional foot pain (referent). During walking, there were significant differences in plantar loading and propulsion ranging from 2% to 4% between those with and without regional foot pain. Significant differences in normalized maximum vertical force and plantar pressure ranged from 5.3% to 12.4% and 3.4% to 24.1%, respectively, between those with and without regional foot pain. CONCLUSIONS. Associations of regional foot pain with plantar pressure and force were different by regions of pain. Region-specific foot pain was not uniformly associated with an increase or decrease in loading and pressure patterns regions of pain

Three-dimensional magnetic flux-closure patterns in mesoscopic Fe islands

We have investigated three-dimensional magnetization structures in numerous mesoscopic Fe/Mo(110) islands by means of x-ray magnetic circular dichroism combined with photoemission electron microscopy (XMCD-PEEM). The particles are epitaxial islands with an elongated hexagonal shape with length of up to 2.5 micrometer and thickness of up to 250 nm. The XMCD-PEEM studies reveal asymmetric magnetization distributions at the surface of these particles. Micromagnetic simulations are in excellent agreement with the observed magnetic structures and provide information on the internal structure of the magnetization which is not accessible in the experiment. It is shown that the magnetization is influenced mostly by the particle size and thickness rather than by the details of its shape. Hence, these hexagonal samples can be regarded as model systems for the study of the magnetization in thick, mesoscopic ferromagnets.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure